The Mac has over 10% market share in the U.S., but under 5% globally (though both those figures would skyrocket if you figured in iPad sales, as I think you should). I think that number will grow at a significant rate, especially with China figured into the equation.
Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty says in a report co-written with Mathew Schneider, that “China is undergoing a ‘megatransition’ from being the leading producer of goods to the leading consumer of them” and that there’s “evidence of strong uptake of Apple products among higher-income China consumers.”
If their numbers are right, Huberty says Apple then would have to grow revenue by just 19% and operating income by 11% in the rest of the world to hit the current consensus two-year EPS [earnings per share] growth forecast of 21% (and our 22%).”
The report also says that Apple’s brand is already preferred by urban Chinese. A November 200 Morgan Stanley survey of Chinese handset users in tier 1/2 cities suggests Apple already has greater mindshare among higher-income China consumers than in the US. This population is 3x as likely to own a Mac, 1.7x as likely to own an iPod, and 1.8x as likely to own an iPhone.
And since Apple recently launched an online store in China and has some serious retail expansion plans for the country, you can bet they aren’t ignoring those figures.
— Dennis Sellers