Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi is telling clients that he expects Apple to sell between 300,000 and 400,000 iPads over launch weekend–including pre-sales. But he figures the device will sell five million in its first full year at market and 6.8 million in fiscal year 2011, according to “All Things D” (http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20100330/ipad-expectations-“over-zealous”/?mod=ATD_rss).
“We note that the initial iPad launch will be a US only launch and will not include 3G models; we suspect that total (including pre-sales) first weekend sales will be slightly higher than the original iPhone’s first weekend (270K), given the iPhone had a similar price, and was US exclusive (although it did not offer pre-orders),” Sacconaghi told clients. “Our analysis suggests that iPhone sales run rates have fallen significantly (i.e., by a factor of 4x – 9x) following launch weekends; we think a drop-off in sales at the high end of this range is likely appropriate for the iPad, given that pre-sales will have boosted first weekend sales. Such a drop-off in iPad sales from our launch weekend forecast would result in unit sales for year 1 of about 5 million units in-line with our estimates.”
The iPad will be available in Wi-Fi models in the US for a suggested retail price of US$499 for 16GB, $599 for 32GB, and $699 for 64GB. The Wi-Fi + 3G models will be available in late April for a suggested retail price of $629 for 16GB, $729 for 32GB and $829 for 64GB. The iPad will be sold in the US through the Apple Store (http://www.apple.com), Apple’s retail stores, most Best Buy stores, select Apple Authorized Resellers and campus bookstores.