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Analyst: Apple to sell 300,000 to 400,000 iPads this weekend


Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi is telling clients that he expects Apple to sell between 300,000 and 400,000 iPads over launch weekend–including pre-sales. But he figures the device will sell five million in its first full year at market and 6.8 million in fiscal year 2011, according to “All Things D” (“over-zealous”/?mod=ATD_rss).

“We note that the initial iPad launch will be a US only launch and will not include 3G models; we suspect that total (including pre-sales) first weekend sales will be slightly higher than the original iPhone’s first weekend (270K), given the iPhone had a similar price, and was US exclusive (although it did not offer pre-orders),” Sacconaghi told clients. “Our analysis suggests that iPhone sales run rates have fallen significantly (i.e., by a factor of 4x – 9x) following launch weekends; we think a drop-off in sales at the high end of this range is likely appropriate for the iPad, given that pre-sales will have boosted first weekend sales. Such a drop-off in iPad sales from our launch weekend forecast would result in unit sales for year 1 of about 5 million units in-line with our estimates.”

The iPad will be available in Wi-Fi models in the US for a suggested retail price of US$499 for 16GB, $599 for 32GB, and $699 for 64GB. The Wi-Fi + 3G models will be available in late April for a suggested retail price of $629 for 16GB, $729 for 32GB and $829 for 64GB. The iPad will be sold in the US through the Apple Store (, Apple’s retail stores, most Best Buy stores, select Apple Authorized Resellers and campus bookstores.

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