Canalys (www.canalys.com) forecasts that 93.7 million cars will be sold worldwide in 2017, up just 1.7% on 2016.
Low single-digit percentage sales volume growth will continue for the next five years, peaking at 99 million cars sold in 2022, according to the research group. Annual global sales will then decline as the urban mobility revolution, already affecting the market, gathers pace.
“The convenience of owning a car comes at a cost. Cars are under-used – they sit idle for more than 90% of the time. The wider availability of urban mobility services, such as ride-hailing, car-sharing and robotaxis, will further reduce car ownership. With the expectation of everything on demand, these services will revolutionize how people travel,” said Chris Jones, chief analyst, Automotive at Canalys.
“There are already too many cars on our heavily-congested roads, and most pollute the air and only carry one person – the driver,” said Canalys Vice President Sandy Fitzpatrick. “It will be irresponsible of governments to let this ‘car park’ increase in the coming years. Legislation must be introduced to ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars and to allow autonomous vehicles on our roads.”
“In this climate, no car-maker is too big to fail,” said Jones. “They will continue to fight for sales growth and must seek new revenue streams, including urban mobility services. Cars will increasingly become connected, electric, autonomous and shared. Car-makers that are too slow or too conservative to adapt their strategies will disappear.”