The Northern Spy: Looking at global finances and Apple in 2013
TweetFollow Us on Twitter

The Northern Spy: Looking at global finances and Apple in 2013

Some analysts are upbeat about RIM but the Spy doesn't understand why. The new Blackberry and OS are too little and too late to make any difference. Colour this one more or less DOA, along with the readers' choice of Sony, Sharp, and Panasonic. Both the smartphone and large appliance electronic markets are over-saturated with brands that are no longer viable.

Others have become downbeat about Apple. Well, the Spy can understand that the stock may have entered a more "mature" category, and might henceforth trade less as a speculative and more in accord with its P/E ratio, which is slightly higher than that of IBM. Assuming that as a rough benchmark, future stock price increases (smoothed) should be in accord with earnings growth, which might be in the 20-30% range, barring accidents. 'Course, what is an appropriate P/E ratio also depends on the larger stock market, and that's another story.

Then there are those who think that solving the Excited States' fiscal cliff problem will goose the whole market. Perhaps. But if the solution does not include significant reductions in spending and a near term move to zero deficit, the politicians are in effect stepping back from the edge of one cliff only to climb to a higher one. Not even by printing money can governments escape the inevitability of debt-driven catastrophe. Ask the Greeks.

Biggest losers are the Republican party. That they must allow some tax increase is a political necessity, lest they be blamed for every financial problem of the next two years. That their elected politicians will be punished by their own supporters when they do is also inevitable. This classic no-win solution extends to all of us.
The economy has become dependent on government debt, but that debt is unsustainable even at present levels, and taxes can be raised only so high before no one can pay. The Democrats by contrast have never pretended to be anything but tax-and-spend now and ignore the future. Continuing on the same path has no near term downside for them.

Now maybe, just maybe, the improvement in the general economy now that the housing crises is passed will be substantial enough that with some tax increases and major spending cuts, the American deficit next year will substantially decline. Don't count on it -- historically more revenue emboldens politicians to spend more still. After all, isn't everyone entitled to cradle-to-grave security from the nanny state?

Colour financial 2013 troubled but improving (outside Europe)

These observations are a propos of something deeper. The chief failing of democracy (the worst form of government excepting all the others) is that demagogues devoid of substance rise to power. One only needs to survey the current North American political and institutional scene to verify this. In theory, we ought to be able to expect something far different--substance. But it is sizzle that sells, not steak, smoke and mirrors, not competence.

The Spy sees all too much of politicians who get elected on promises that even they must have a hard time believing themselves, only to be shocked at learning they have to govern, that the solutions they offered on the hustings bear no relation to the task of good government. But this isn't computer science (rocket science is easy). Any student writing a computer program knows that the first step is to specifically define the problem being solved. If there is such a definition underlying political rhetoric these days, the public has yet to see it.

As a final thought on that subject, the Spy notes that the melting pot model for society has it wrong--anyone (like him) who has ever operated a melting pot knows that the slag rises to the top. Perhaps the solution is to have people submit applications for the political jobs, write and pass a test, prove they are sane, neither bankrupt nor the owner of a criminal (or political?) record, have experience administering something larger than a peanut stand, and indicate their party preference.

Electors then vote for the party, and the office holder is chosen at random from among the winning party's pre-qualified applicants. Better yet, abolish political parties and elections altogether, and draw the new Member of Parliament out of a hat containing all the qualified names. Told you the Spy is an iconoclast.

Turning to products the Spy prognosticates first upon Apple. After all, the company has iCooked up just about every computing-related innovation in the last thirty-five years. Apple still has a corporate culture of striving for insane greatness, and few others do. So, why imagine 2013 will be different? Here's what we can expect:

- a new Mac for the pros, built either around a small box theme as a mini-maxi (box-to box backplane or Thunderbolt connections?) or around an all-in-one theme (think iMac with door-covered slots around the edge for skinny expansion cards).

- version two of the iPad mini with retina display,

- iPod Touch repositioned as iPad micro,

- faster and more elegant iPad regular,

- (reaching here) iPad maxi in thirteen inch screen with keyboard accessorized as a straight up low end laptop; runs either iOS or MacOS,

- (if content deals made) Apple TV, maybe not with a screen of its own; hook it to your ancient Sony or Sharp,

- a first attempt by Apple or an app maker to get textbooks on a portable device right (it's coming soon, just a matter of when; then kiss the whole paper text industry farewell),

- more convergence between iOS and MacOS in OS X 10.9,

- first glimmers of OS 11.0,

- Apple makes at least one significant corporate buy,

- Apple moves closer to (but not quite there) making their own chips across the whole product line.

And in the "other" department

since we're now past the W*nd*ws vs Mac cusp that the Spy forecast lo these may years ago, a sharp decline in PC sales, MS profits and corresponding stock prices,

Specifically, a weak take-up of Windows 8 except by existing licensees, and next to no interest in Surface except by a few vertical integrators,

Specifically, that at least one large maker of generic PCs gets into serious financial trouble in the next 9-18 months,

two or three large electronics manufacturers will be in bankruptcy protection or gone,

a growing realization that most of those Android smartphones have marginal use (weak application market), this reflected in corporate reluctance to damage the brand by association, continued weakness in apps, and so a sharp downturn in said share,

the mechanical disk industry starts to die as the SSD sees costs plummet (though speed not increase),

first glimmers of biological interfaces for portable devices become the forerunners to the Spy's fictional PIEA (Personal intelligence Enhancement Appliance), from which we are still a long way,

first glimmers of a new and faster storage technology,

first glimmers of OS 11.0,

- all the pundits, including this one, are proven right, wrong, or neither.

--The Northern Spy

Opinions expressed here are entirely the author's own, and no endorsement is implied by any community or organization to which he may be attached. Rick Sutcliffe, (a.k.a. The Northern Spy) is professor of Computing Science and Mathematics at Canada's Trinity Western University. He has been involved as a member or consultant with the boards of several organizations, including in the corporate sector, and participated in industry standards at the national and international level. He is a long time technology author and has written two textbooks and six novels, one named best ePublished SF novel for 2003. His columns have appeared in numerous magazines and newspapers (paper and online), and he's a regular speaker at churches, schools, academic meetings, and conferences. He and his wife Joyce have lived in the Aldergrove/Bradner area of BC since 1972.

Want to discuss this and other Northern Spy columns? Surf on over to ArjayBB.com. Participate and you could win free web hosting from the WebNameHost.net subsidiary of Arjay Web Services. Rick Sutcliffe's fiction can be purchased in various eBook formats from Fictionwise, and in dead tree form from Amazon's Booksurge.

URLs for Rick Sutcliffe's Arjay Enterprises:
The Northern Spy Home Page: http://www.TheNorthernSpy.com
opundo : http://opundo.com
Sheaves Christian Resources : http://sheaves.org
WebNameHost : http://www.WebNameHost.net
WebNameSource : http://www.WebNameSource.net
nameman : http://nameman.net
General URLs for Rick Sutcliffe's Books:
Author Site: http://www.arjay.ca
Publisher's Site: http://www.writers-exchange.com/Richard-Sutcliffe.html

 
AAPL
$107.80
Apple Inc.
+0.82
MSFT
$46.82
Microsoft Corpora
+0.77
GOOG
$558.34
Google Inc.
+8.03

MacTech Search:
Community Search:

Software Updates via MacUpdate

Vitamin-R 2.20b1 - Personal productivity...
Vitamin-R creates the optimal conditions for your brain to work at its best by structuring your work into short bursts of distraction-free, highly focused activity alternating with opportunities for... Read more
Dropbox 2.10.44 - Cloud synchronization...
Dropbox is an application that creates a special Finder folder that automatically syncs online and between your computers. It allows you to both backup files and keep them up-to-date between systems... Read more
Sandvox 2.9.2 - Easily build eye-catchin...
Sandvox is for Mac users who want to create a professional looking website quickly and easily. With Sandvox, you don't need to be a Web genius to build a stylish, feature-rich, standards-compliant... Read more
Cocktail 8.0.1 - General maintenance and...
Cocktail is a general purpose utility for OS X that lets you clean, repair and optimize your Mac. It is a powerful digital toolset that helps hundreds of thousands of Mac users around the world get... Read more
LibreOffice 4.3.3.2 - Free Open Source o...
LibreOffice is an office suite (word processor, spreadsheet, presentations, drawing tool) compatible with other major office suites. The Document Foundation is coordinating development and... Read more
VMware Fusion 7.0.1 - Run Windows apps a...
VMware Fusion allows you to create a Virtual Machine on your Mac and run Windows (including Windows 8.1) and Windows software on your Mac. Run your favorite Windows applications alongside Mac... Read more
OneNote 15.3.2 - Free digital notebook f...
OneNote is your very own digital notebook. With OneNote, you can capture that flash of genius, that moment of inspiration, or that list of errands that's too important to forget. Whether you're at... Read more
Audio Hijack Pro 2.11.4 - Record and enh...
Audio Hijack Pro drastically changes the way you use audio on your computer, giving you the freedom to listen to audio when you want and how you want. Record and enhance any audio with Audio Hijack... Read more
Iridient Developer 3.0.0 beta 3 - Powerf...
Iridient Developer (was RAW Developer) is a powerful image conversion application designed specifically for OS X. Iridient Developer gives advanced photographers total control over every aspect of... Read more
TextWrangler 4.5.11 - Free general purpo...
TextWrangler is the powerful general purpose text editor, and Unix and server administrator's tool. Oh, and also, like the best things in life, it's free. TextWrangler is the "little brother" to... Read more

Latest Forum Discussions

See All

Monster Flash Review
Monster Flash Review By Jordan Minor on October 31st, 2014 Our Rating: :: ALONE IN THE DARKUniversal App - Designed for iPhone and iPad Solid shooting and a surprising amount of spooky tension make Monster Flash a great portable... | Read more »
Retry Review
Retry Review By Rob Thomas on October 31st, 2014 Our Rating: :: SOARING HIGHUniversal App - Designed for iPhone and iPad Flappy who? Let Retry wash all those bad bird-related memories away on a cool retro-flavored flight… right... | Read more »
Dementia: Book of the Dead Review
Dementia: Book of the Dead Review By Lee Hamlet on October 31st, 2014 Our Rating: :: A TOUGH READUniversal App - Designed for iPhone and iPad A witch hunter is sent after a demonic book in the spooky but short-lived Dementia: Book... | Read more »
Card Dungeon, the Semi-Board Game Roguel...
Card Dungeon, the Semi-Board Game Roguelike, Has Been Renovated Posted by Jessica Fisher on October 31st, 2014 [ permalink ] | Read more »
Logitech Protection + Power iPhone5/5S C...
Made by: Logitech Price: $99.99 Hardware/iOS Integration Rating: 3 out of 5 stars Usability Rating: 0.5 out of 5 stars Reuse Value Rating: 0.75 out of 5 stars Build Quality Rating: 0.75 out of 5 stars Overall Rating: 1.25 out of 5 stars | Read more »
This Is Not a Test Goes Free, Permanentl...
This Is Not a Test Goes Free, Permanently Posted by Jessica Fisher on October 31st, 2014 [ permalink ] Universal App - Designed for iPhone and iPad | Read more »
Swap Heroes Review
Swap Heroes Review By Campbell Bird on October 31st, 2014 Our Rating: :: STRATEGIC SWAPPINGUniversal App - Designed for iPhone and iPad Rotate a cast of heroes to fend of waves of monsters in this difficult, puzzle rpg.   | Read more »
Night Sky Pro™ (Reference)
Night Sky Pro™ 3.0.1 Device: iOS Universal Category: Reference Price: $2.99, Version: 3.0.1 (iTunes) Description: Night Sky Pro™Wonder No More™ Night Sky Pro™ is the ultimate stargazing experience. From the creators of the original... | Read more »
Audio Defence : Zombie Arena (Games)
Audio Defence : Zombie Arena 1.0 Device: iOS Universal Category: Games Price: $4.99, Version: 1.0 (iTunes) Description: A zombie shooter audio game. Made from gut-wrenching 3D binaural sound, for a new kind of weird immersion. You... | Read more »
RPG Asdivine Hearts (Games)
RPG Asdivine Hearts 1.1.0 Device: iOS Universal Category: Games Price: $3.99, Version: 1.1.0 (iTunes) Description: SPECIAL PRICE50% OFF (USD 7.99 -> USD 3.99)!!! Travel alongside four companions and a cat in the adventure of a... | Read more »

Price Scanner via MacPrices.net

Apple now offering refurbished 2014 13-inch R...
The Apple Store is now offering Apple Certified Refurbished 2014 13″ Retina MacBook Pros for up to $270 off the cost of new models. An Apple one-year warranty is included with each model, and... Read more
Apple Regains Momentum As Windows Stutters An...
The latest smartphone sales data from Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, for the three months to March 2014, shows Apple performing strongly in the first quarter of the year, with sales bouncing back in... Read more
Worldwide Smartphone Shipments Increase 25.2%...
New smartphone releases and an increased emphasis on emerging markets drove global smartphone shipments above 300 million units for the second consecutive quarter, according to preliminary data from... Read more
Apple now offering refurbished 2014 15-inch M...
The Apple Store is now offering Apple Certified Refurbished 2014 15″ Retina MacBook Pros for up to $400 off the cost of new models. An Apple one-year warranty is included with each model, and... Read more
Apple drops prices on refurbished 2013 Retina...
The Apple Store has dropped prices on 2013 Apple Certified Refurbished 13″ and 15″ Retina MacBook Pros, with Retina models now available starting at $999. Apple’s one-year warranty is standard, and... Read more
New 2.8GHz Mac mini on sale for $949, save $5...
Abt Electronics has the new 2.8GHz Mac mini in stock and on sale for $949.05 including free shipping. Their price is $50 off MSRP, and it’s the lowest price available for this model from any reseller... Read more
Sale! 3.7GHz Quad Core Mac Pro available for...
 B&H Photo has the 3.7GHz Quad Core Mac Pro on sale for $2649 including free shipping plus NY sales tax only. Their price is $350 off MSRP, and it’s the lowest price for this model from any... Read more
Mujjo Steps Up The Game With Refined Touchscr...
Netherlands based Mujjo have just launched their Refined Touchscreen Gloves, stepping up their game. The gloves feature a updated elegant design that takes these knitted gloves to the next level. A... Read more
Sale! Preorder the new 27-inch 5K iMac for $2...
 Abt Electronics has the new 27″ 3.5GHz 5K iMac on sale and available for preorder for $2374.05 including free shipping. Their price is $125 off MSRP, and it’s the lowest price available for this... Read more
Simplex Solutions Inc. Brings Secure Web Surf...
New York based Simplex Solutions Inc. has announced the release and immediate availability of Private Browser 1.0, its revolutionary new secure web browser developed for iPhone, iPad and iPod touch... Read more

Jobs Board

Position Opening at *Apple* - Apple (United...
**Job Summary** Every day, business customers come to the Apple Store to discover what powerful, easy-to-use Apple products can do for them. As a Business Leader, Read more
Sr. Manager, *Apple* Deployment Programs fo...
**Job Summary** Apple is seeking candidates for a new position on the Education Content and Technology team. iPad and Mac is in the hands of millions of teachers and Read more
*Apple* Solutions Consultant (ASC) - Apple I...
…important role that the ASC serves is that of providing an excellent Apple Customer Experience. Responsibilities include: * Promoting Apple products and solutions Read more
*Apple* Solutions Consultant (ASC) - Apple I...
…important role that the ASC serves is that of providing an excellent Apple Customer Experience. Responsibilities include: * Promoting Apple products and solutions Read more
*Apple* Solutions Consultant (ASC) - Apple I...
…important role that the ASC serves is that of providing an excellent Apple Customer Experience. Responsibilities include: * Promoting Apple products and solutions Read more
All contents are Copyright 1984-2011 by Xplain Corporation. All rights reserved. Theme designed by Icreon.