The Northern Spy: Looking at global finances and Apple in 2013
TweetFollow Us on Twitter

The Northern Spy: Looking at global finances and Apple in 2013

Some analysts are upbeat about RIM but the Spy doesn't understand why. The new Blackberry and OS are too little and too late to make any difference. Colour this one more or less DOA, along with the readers' choice of Sony, Sharp, and Panasonic. Both the smartphone and large appliance electronic markets are over-saturated with brands that are no longer viable.

Others have become downbeat about Apple. Well, the Spy can understand that the stock may have entered a more "mature" category, and might henceforth trade less as a speculative and more in accord with its P/E ratio, which is slightly higher than that of IBM. Assuming that as a rough benchmark, future stock price increases (smoothed) should be in accord with earnings growth, which might be in the 20-30% range, barring accidents. 'Course, what is an appropriate P/E ratio also depends on the larger stock market, and that's another story.

Then there are those who think that solving the Excited States' fiscal cliff problem will goose the whole market. Perhaps. But if the solution does not include significant reductions in spending and a near term move to zero deficit, the politicians are in effect stepping back from the edge of one cliff only to climb to a higher one. Not even by printing money can governments escape the inevitability of debt-driven catastrophe. Ask the Greeks.

Biggest losers are the Republican party. That they must allow some tax increase is a political necessity, lest they be blamed for every financial problem of the next two years. That their elected politicians will be punished by their own supporters when they do is also inevitable. This classic no-win solution extends to all of us.
The economy has become dependent on government debt, but that debt is unsustainable even at present levels, and taxes can be raised only so high before no one can pay. The Democrats by contrast have never pretended to be anything but tax-and-spend now and ignore the future. Continuing on the same path has no near term downside for them.

Now maybe, just maybe, the improvement in the general economy now that the housing crises is passed will be substantial enough that with some tax increases and major spending cuts, the American deficit next year will substantially decline. Don't count on it -- historically more revenue emboldens politicians to spend more still. After all, isn't everyone entitled to cradle-to-grave security from the nanny state?

Colour financial 2013 troubled but improving (outside Europe)

These observations are a propos of something deeper. The chief failing of democracy (the worst form of government excepting all the others) is that demagogues devoid of substance rise to power. One only needs to survey the current North American political and institutional scene to verify this. In theory, we ought to be able to expect something far different--substance. But it is sizzle that sells, not steak, smoke and mirrors, not competence.

The Spy sees all too much of politicians who get elected on promises that even they must have a hard time believing themselves, only to be shocked at learning they have to govern, that the solutions they offered on the hustings bear no relation to the task of good government. But this isn't computer science (rocket science is easy). Any student writing a computer program knows that the first step is to specifically define the problem being solved. If there is such a definition underlying political rhetoric these days, the public has yet to see it.

As a final thought on that subject, the Spy notes that the melting pot model for society has it wrong--anyone (like him) who has ever operated a melting pot knows that the slag rises to the top. Perhaps the solution is to have people submit applications for the political jobs, write and pass a test, prove they are sane, neither bankrupt nor the owner of a criminal (or political?) record, have experience administering something larger than a peanut stand, and indicate their party preference.

Electors then vote for the party, and the office holder is chosen at random from among the winning party's pre-qualified applicants. Better yet, abolish political parties and elections altogether, and draw the new Member of Parliament out of a hat containing all the qualified names. Told you the Spy is an iconoclast.

Turning to products the Spy prognosticates first upon Apple. After all, the company has iCooked up just about every computing-related innovation in the last thirty-five years. Apple still has a corporate culture of striving for insane greatness, and few others do. So, why imagine 2013 will be different? Here's what we can expect:

- a new Mac for the pros, built either around a small box theme as a mini-maxi (box-to box backplane or Thunderbolt connections?) or around an all-in-one theme (think iMac with door-covered slots around the edge for skinny expansion cards).

- version two of the iPad mini with retina display,

- iPod Touch repositioned as iPad micro,

- faster and more elegant iPad regular,

- (reaching here) iPad maxi in thirteen inch screen with keyboard accessorized as a straight up low end laptop; runs either iOS or MacOS,

- (if content deals made) Apple TV, maybe not with a screen of its own; hook it to your ancient Sony or Sharp,

- a first attempt by Apple or an app maker to get textbooks on a portable device right (it's coming soon, just a matter of when; then kiss the whole paper text industry farewell),

- more convergence between iOS and MacOS in OS X 10.9,

- first glimmers of OS 11.0,

- Apple makes at least one significant corporate buy,

- Apple moves closer to (but not quite there) making their own chips across the whole product line.

And in the "other" department

since we're now past the W*nd*ws vs Mac cusp that the Spy forecast lo these may years ago, a sharp decline in PC sales, MS profits and corresponding stock prices,

Specifically, a weak take-up of Windows 8 except by existing licensees, and next to no interest in Surface except by a few vertical integrators,

Specifically, that at least one large maker of generic PCs gets into serious financial trouble in the next 9-18 months,

two or three large electronics manufacturers will be in bankruptcy protection or gone,

a growing realization that most of those Android smartphones have marginal use (weak application market), this reflected in corporate reluctance to damage the brand by association, continued weakness in apps, and so a sharp downturn in said share,

the mechanical disk industry starts to die as the SSD sees costs plummet (though speed not increase),

first glimmers of biological interfaces for portable devices become the forerunners to the Spy's fictional PIEA (Personal intelligence Enhancement Appliance), from which we are still a long way,

first glimmers of a new and faster storage technology,

first glimmers of OS 11.0,

- all the pundits, including this one, are proven right, wrong, or neither.

--The Northern Spy

Opinions expressed here are entirely the author's own, and no endorsement is implied by any community or organization to which he may be attached. Rick Sutcliffe, (a.k.a. The Northern Spy) is professor of Computing Science and Mathematics at Canada's Trinity Western University. He has been involved as a member or consultant with the boards of several organizations, including in the corporate sector, and participated in industry standards at the national and international level. He is a long time technology author and has written two textbooks and six novels, one named best ePublished SF novel for 2003. His columns have appeared in numerous magazines and newspapers (paper and online), and he's a regular speaker at churches, schools, academic meetings, and conferences. He and his wife Joyce have lived in the Aldergrove/Bradner area of BC since 1972.

Want to discuss this and other Northern Spy columns? Surf on over to ArjayBB.com. Participate and you could win free web hosting from the WebNameHost.net subsidiary of Arjay Web Services. Rick Sutcliffe's fiction can be purchased in various eBook formats from Fictionwise, and in dead tree form from Amazon's Booksurge.

URLs for Rick Sutcliffe's Arjay Enterprises:
The Northern Spy Home Page: http://www.TheNorthernSpy.com
opundo : http://opundo.com
Sheaves Christian Resources : http://sheaves.org
WebNameHost : http://www.WebNameHost.net
WebNameSource : http://www.WebNameSource.net
nameman : http://nameman.net
General URLs for Rick Sutcliffe's Books:
Author Site: http://www.arjay.ca
Publisher's Site: http://www.writers-exchange.com/Richard-Sutcliffe.html

 

Community Search:
MacTech Search:

Software Updates via MacUpdate

calibre 2.17 - Complete e-library manage...
Calibre is a complete e-book library manager. Organize your collection, convert your books to multiple formats, and sync with all of your devices. Let Calibre be your multi-tasking digital librarian... Read more
OmniGraffle Pro 6.1.2 - Create diagrams,...
OmniGraffle Pro helps you draw beautiful diagrams, family trees, flow charts, org charts, layouts, and (mathematically speaking) any other directed or non-directed graphs. We've had people use... Read more
OmniGraffle 6.1.2 - Create diagrams, flo...
OmniGraffle helps you draw beautiful diagrams, family trees, flow charts, org charts, layouts, and (mathematically speaking) any other directed or non-directed graphs. We've had people use Graffle to... Read more
RoboForm 2.0.2 - Password manager; syncs...
RoboForm is a password manager that offers one-click login, mobile syncing, easy form filling, and reliable security. Password Manager. RoboForm remembers your passwords so you don't have to! Just... Read more
Apple MainStage 3.1 - Live performance t...
Love the sound you got on your recording? MainStage 3 makes it easy to bring all the same instruments and effects to the stage. Everything from the Sound Library and Smart Controls you're familiar... Read more
Freeway Pro 7.0.2 - Drag-and-drop Web de...
Freeway Pro lets you build websites with speed and precision... without writing a line of code! With its user-oriented drag-and-drop interface, Freeway Pro helps you piece together the website of... Read more
A Better Finder Rename 9.44 - File, phot...
A Better Finder Rename is the most complete renaming solution available on the market today. That's why, since 1996, tens of thousands of hobbyists, professionals and businesses depend on A Better... Read more
Stacks 2.6.9 - New way to create pages i...
Stacks is a new way to create pages in RapidWeaver. It's a plugin designed to combine drag-and-drop simplicity with the power of fluid layout. Features: Fluid Layout: Stacks lets you build pages... Read more
Sid Meier's Civilization: Beyond Ea...
Sid Meier's Civilization: Beyond Earth is a new science-fiction-themed entry into the award-winning Civilization series. Set in the future, global events have destabilized the world leading to a... Read more
Logic Pro X 10.1 - Music creation and au...
Apple Logic Pro X is the most advanced version of Logic ever. Sophisticated new tools for professional songwriting, editing, and mixing are built around a modern interface that's designed to get... Read more

Choice Provisions is Set to Launch Destr...
Choice Provisions is Set to Launch Destructamundo on iOS This Month Posted by Tre Lawrence on January 23rd, 2015 [ permalink ] Choice Provisions – home stable to | Read more »
King of Thieves – An Interview With Zept...
Ahead of the release of ZeptoLab’s King of Thieves, we were able to ask ZeptoLab’s co-founder, Semyon Voinov, a few questions about the inspiration behind the game and what that means for the Cut the Rope franchise. | Read more »
Handle Review
Handle Review By Jennifer Allen on January 23rd, 2015 Our Rating: :: SPEEDY ORGANIZINGUniversal App - Designed for iPhone and iPad Handle is a very convenient way of juggling your emails, To Do list, and Calendar all through one... | Read more »
The New Disney Inquizitive App Offers a...
The New Disney Inquizitive App Offers a Place for Fans to Take Disney Quizzes Posted by Tre Lawrence on January 23rd, 2015 [ permalink ] | Read more »
Hands-On With Cut the Rope Developer Zep...
Marking quite a departure from ZeptoLab’s past successes, namely the Cut The Rope series, King of Thieves is shaping up to be quite promising. Due for release in February, we were lucky enough to have some time with a preview build to see exactly... | Read more »
Fast Fishing Review
Fast Fishing Review By Jennifer Allen on January 23rd, 2015 Our Rating: :: LIVES UP TO ITS NAMEUniversal App - Designed for iPhone and iPad Fishing is far from relaxing in Fast Fishing, but it is fun.   | Read more »
The LEGO Movie Video Game is Available N...
The LEGO Movie Video Game is Available Now for iOS Posted by Ellis Spice on January 23rd, 2015 [ permalink ] Universal App - Designed for iPhone and iPad | Read more »
Satellina Review
Satellina Review By Jennifer Allen on January 23rd, 2015 Our Rating: :: TWITCHY BUT TACTICALUniversal App - Designed for iPhone and iPad Satellina requires quick thinking and twitchy fingers, and it’s pretty fun.   | Read more »
Tail Drift, the Crazy 360 Degree Flyer,...
Tail Drift, the Crazy 360 Degree Flyer, Has Gone Free-to-Play in a New Update Posted by Jessica Fisher on January 22nd, 2015 [ permalink ] | Read more »
PureSkate 2 Review
PureSkate 2 Review By Tre Lawrence on January 22nd, 2015 Our Rating: :: ALMOST ALL AIRUniversal App - Designed for iPhone and iPad PureSkate 2 lets one’s fingers do the skateboarding.   | Read more »

Price Scanner via MacPrices.net

iPhone 6 and 6 Plus GIve Apple Half Of US Mob...
Chicago-based Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, LLC (CIRP) have released analysis of the results of its research on mobile phone manufacturers for the calendar quarter that ended December 31,... Read more
Save $100 on MacBook Airs with 256GB of stora...
B&H Photo has 256GB MacBook Airs on sale for $100 off MSRP. Shipping is free, and B&H charges NY sales tax only: - 11″ 1.4GHz/256GB MacBook Air: $999 $100 off MSRP - 13″ 1.4GHz/256GB MacBook... Read more
21-inch 2.7GHz iMac on sale for $1179, save $...
B&H Photo has the 21″ 2.7GHz iMac on sale for $1179 including free shipping plus NY sales tax only. Their price is $120 off MSRP, and it’s the lowest price available for this model from any... Read more
iPhone Usage Rates by State Correlate With Ed...
Chitika Insights notes that despite iPhones being the largest source of smartphone Internet traffic in North America, their latest study finds a relatively high degree of variation of iPhone usage... Read more
ProGearX Extendable Pole “Pov/Selfie Stick” M...
There’s something inescapably narcissistic about the concept of selfies as they’ve developed as a smartphone-driven social (particularly social media) phenomenon that rubs me the wrong way. However,... Read more
iPad Air 2 on sale for up to $100 off MSRP, 2...
 Best Buy has iPad Air 2s on sale for up to $100 off MSRP on their online store for the next two days. Choose free shipping or free local store pickup (if available). Sale prices available for online... Read more
Roundup of Apple refurbished MacBook Pros and...
The Apple Store has Apple Certified Refurbished 2014 MacBook Pros and MacBook Airs available for up to $400 off the cost of new models. An Apple one-year warranty is included with each model, and... Read more
Sale! 13-inch 2.8GHz Retina MacBook Pro for $...
 B&H Photo has the 13″ 2.8GHz Retina MacBook Pro on sale for $1599 including free shipping plus NY sales tax only. Their price is $200 off MSRP, and it’s the lowest price available for this model... Read more
Next OS X/iOS Version Upgrades Should Concent...
On stage at Apple’s World Wide Developers’ Conference in June 2009, Bertrand Serlet, the company’s Senior Vice President of Software Engineering at the time, announced that the forthcoming OS X... Read more
First National Bank to Offer Apple Pay Adds I...
First National Bank will make Apple Pay available to customers beginning in the first quarter of 2015. Apple Pay will enable customers to easily make secure mobile payments with their First National... Read more

Jobs Board

*Apple* Solutions Consultant (ASC)- Retail S...
**Job Summary** The ASC is an Apple employee who serves as an Apple brand ambassador and influencer in a Reseller's store. The ASC's role is to grow Apple Read more
*Apple* Solutions Consultant - Retail Sales...
**Job Summary** As an Apple Solutions Consultant (ASC) you are the link between our customers and our products. Your role is to drive the Apple business in a retail Read more
*Apple* Lead Operator, GSOC - Apple (United...
**Job Summary** Apple is seeking an exceptional, customer service oriented and experienced persons to fulfill the role of Apple Lead Operator (ALO) as part of the Read more
Order Support Supervisor- *Apple* Online Sto...
**Job Summary** The Apple Online Store (AOS) Order Administration team is looking for an Order Support Supervisor to manage and lead a team of Specialists through the Read more
Senior Program Manager, *Apple* Online Supp...
**Job Summary** The Apple Online Support Planning team is looking for an experienced Senior Project Manager to lead key Quality program initiatives across the Online Read more
All contents are Copyright 1984-2011 by Xplain Corporation. All rights reserved. Theme designed by Icreon.