The Northern Spy: Looking at global finances and Apple in 2013
TweetFollow Us on Twitter

The Northern Spy: Looking at global finances and Apple in 2013

Some analysts are upbeat about RIM but the Spy doesn't understand why. The new Blackberry and OS are too little and too late to make any difference. Colour this one more or less DOA, along with the readers' choice of Sony, Sharp, and Panasonic. Both the smartphone and large appliance electronic markets are over-saturated with brands that are no longer viable.

Others have become downbeat about Apple. Well, the Spy can understand that the stock may have entered a more "mature" category, and might henceforth trade less as a speculative and more in accord with its P/E ratio, which is slightly higher than that of IBM. Assuming that as a rough benchmark, future stock price increases (smoothed) should be in accord with earnings growth, which might be in the 20-30% range, barring accidents. 'Course, what is an appropriate P/E ratio also depends on the larger stock market, and that's another story.

Then there are those who think that solving the Excited States' fiscal cliff problem will goose the whole market. Perhaps. But if the solution does not include significant reductions in spending and a near term move to zero deficit, the politicians are in effect stepping back from the edge of one cliff only to climb to a higher one. Not even by printing money can governments escape the inevitability of debt-driven catastrophe. Ask the Greeks.

Biggest losers are the Republican party. That they must allow some tax increase is a political necessity, lest they be blamed for every financial problem of the next two years. That their elected politicians will be punished by their own supporters when they do is also inevitable. This classic no-win solution extends to all of us.
The economy has become dependent on government debt, but that debt is unsustainable even at present levels, and taxes can be raised only so high before no one can pay. The Democrats by contrast have never pretended to be anything but tax-and-spend now and ignore the future. Continuing on the same path has no near term downside for them.

Now maybe, just maybe, the improvement in the general economy now that the housing crises is passed will be substantial enough that with some tax increases and major spending cuts, the American deficit next year will substantially decline. Don't count on it -- historically more revenue emboldens politicians to spend more still. After all, isn't everyone entitled to cradle-to-grave security from the nanny state?

Colour financial 2013 troubled but improving (outside Europe)

These observations are a propos of something deeper. The chief failing of democracy (the worst form of government excepting all the others) is that demagogues devoid of substance rise to power. One only needs to survey the current North American political and institutional scene to verify this. In theory, we ought to be able to expect something far different--substance. But it is sizzle that sells, not steak, smoke and mirrors, not competence.

The Spy sees all too much of politicians who get elected on promises that even they must have a hard time believing themselves, only to be shocked at learning they have to govern, that the solutions they offered on the hustings bear no relation to the task of good government. But this isn't computer science (rocket science is easy). Any student writing a computer program knows that the first step is to specifically define the problem being solved. If there is such a definition underlying political rhetoric these days, the public has yet to see it.

As a final thought on that subject, the Spy notes that the melting pot model for society has it wrong--anyone (like him) who has ever operated a melting pot knows that the slag rises to the top. Perhaps the solution is to have people submit applications for the political jobs, write and pass a test, prove they are sane, neither bankrupt nor the owner of a criminal (or political?) record, have experience administering something larger than a peanut stand, and indicate their party preference.

Electors then vote for the party, and the office holder is chosen at random from among the winning party's pre-qualified applicants. Better yet, abolish political parties and elections altogether, and draw the new Member of Parliament out of a hat containing all the qualified names. Told you the Spy is an iconoclast.

Turning to products the Spy prognosticates first upon Apple. After all, the company has iCooked up just about every computing-related innovation in the last thirty-five years. Apple still has a corporate culture of striving for insane greatness, and few others do. So, why imagine 2013 will be different? Here's what we can expect:

- a new Mac for the pros, built either around a small box theme as a mini-maxi (box-to box backplane or Thunderbolt connections?) or around an all-in-one theme (think iMac with door-covered slots around the edge for skinny expansion cards).

- version two of the iPad mini with retina display,

- iPod Touch repositioned as iPad micro,

- faster and more elegant iPad regular,

- (reaching here) iPad maxi in thirteen inch screen with keyboard accessorized as a straight up low end laptop; runs either iOS or MacOS,

- (if content deals made) Apple TV, maybe not with a screen of its own; hook it to your ancient Sony or Sharp,

- a first attempt by Apple or an app maker to get textbooks on a portable device right (it's coming soon, just a matter of when; then kiss the whole paper text industry farewell),

- more convergence between iOS and MacOS in OS X 10.9,

- first glimmers of OS 11.0,

- Apple makes at least one significant corporate buy,

- Apple moves closer to (but not quite there) making their own chips across the whole product line.

And in the "other" department

since we're now past the W*nd*ws vs Mac cusp that the Spy forecast lo these may years ago, a sharp decline in PC sales, MS profits and corresponding stock prices,

Specifically, a weak take-up of Windows 8 except by existing licensees, and next to no interest in Surface except by a few vertical integrators,

Specifically, that at least one large maker of generic PCs gets into serious financial trouble in the next 9-18 months,

two or three large electronics manufacturers will be in bankruptcy protection or gone,

a growing realization that most of those Android smartphones have marginal use (weak application market), this reflected in corporate reluctance to damage the brand by association, continued weakness in apps, and so a sharp downturn in said share,

the mechanical disk industry starts to die as the SSD sees costs plummet (though speed not increase),

first glimmers of biological interfaces for portable devices become the forerunners to the Spy's fictional PIEA (Personal intelligence Enhancement Appliance), from which we are still a long way,

first glimmers of a new and faster storage technology,

first glimmers of OS 11.0,

- all the pundits, including this one, are proven right, wrong, or neither.

--The Northern Spy

Opinions expressed here are entirely the author's own, and no endorsement is implied by any community or organization to which he may be attached. Rick Sutcliffe, (a.k.a. The Northern Spy) is professor of Computing Science and Mathematics at Canada's Trinity Western University. He has been involved as a member or consultant with the boards of several organizations, including in the corporate sector, and participated in industry standards at the national and international level. He is a long time technology author and has written two textbooks and six novels, one named best ePublished SF novel for 2003. His columns have appeared in numerous magazines and newspapers (paper and online), and he's a regular speaker at churches, schools, academic meetings, and conferences. He and his wife Joyce have lived in the Aldergrove/Bradner area of BC since 1972.

Want to discuss this and other Northern Spy columns? Surf on over to ArjayBB.com. Participate and you could win free web hosting from the WebNameHost.net subsidiary of Arjay Web Services. Rick Sutcliffe's fiction can be purchased in various eBook formats from Fictionwise, and in dead tree form from Amazon's Booksurge.

URLs for Rick Sutcliffe's Arjay Enterprises:
The Northern Spy Home Page: http://www.TheNorthernSpy.com
opundo : http://opundo.com
Sheaves Christian Resources : http://sheaves.org
WebNameHost : http://www.WebNameHost.net
WebNameSource : http://www.WebNameSource.net
nameman : http://nameman.net
General URLs for Rick Sutcliffe's Books:
Author Site: http://www.arjay.ca
Publisher's Site: http://www.writers-exchange.com/Richard-Sutcliffe.html

 
AAPL
$111.78
Apple Inc.
-0.87
MSFT
$47.66
Microsoft Corpora
+0.14
GOOG
$516.35
Google Inc.
+5.25

MacTech Search:
Community Search:

Software Updates via MacUpdate

CleanApp 5.0.0 Beta 5 - Application dein...
CleanApp is an application deinstaller and archiver.... Your hard drive gets fuller day by day, but do you know why? CleanApp 5 provides you with insights how to reclaim disk space. There are... Read more
Monolingual 1.6.2 - Remove unwanted OS X...
Monolingual is a program for removing unnecesary language resources from OS X, in order to reclaim several hundred megabytes of disk space. It requires a 64-bit capable Intel-based Mac and at least... Read more
NetShade 6.1 - Browse privately using an...
NetShade is an Internet security tool that conceals your IP address on the web. NetShade routes your Web connection through either a public anonymous proxy server, or one of NetShade's own dedicated... Read more
calibre 2.13 - Complete e-library manage...
Calibre is a complete e-book library manager. Organize your collection, convert your books to multiple formats, and sync with all of your devices. Let Calibre be your multi-tasking digital librarian... Read more
Mellel 3.3.7 - Powerful word processor w...
Mellel is the leading word processor for OS X and has been widely considered the industry standard since its inception. Mellel focuses on writers and scholars for technical writing and multilingual... Read more
ScreenFlow 5.0.1 - Create screen recordi...
Save 10% with the exclusive MacUpdate coupon code: AFMacUpdate10 Buy now! ScreenFlow is powerful, easy-to-use screencasting software for the Mac. With ScreenFlow you can record the contents of your... Read more
Simon 4.0 - Monitor changes and crashes...
Simon monitors websites and alerts you of crashes and changes. Select pages to monitor, choose your alert options, and customize your settings. Simon does the rest. Keep a watchful eye on your... Read more
BBEdit 11.0.2 - Powerful text and HTML e...
BBEdit is the leading professional HTML and text editor for the Mac. Specifically crafted in response to the needs of Web authors and software developers, this award-winning product provides a... Read more
ExpanDrive 4.2.1 - Access cloud storage...
ExpanDrive builds cloud storage in every application, acts just like a USB drive plugged into your Mac. With ExpanDrive, you can securely access any remote file server directly from the Finder or... Read more
Adobe After Effects CC 2014 13.2 - Creat...
After Effects CC 2014 is available as part of Adobe Creative Cloud for as little as $19.99/month (or $9.99/month if you're a previous After Effects customer). After Effects CS6 is still available... Read more

Latest Forum Discussions

See All

Make your own Tribez Figures (and More)...
Make your own Tribez Figures (and More) with Toyze Posted by Jessica Fisher on December 19th, 2014 [ permalink ] Universal App - Designed for iPhone and iPad | Read more »
So Many Holiday iOS Sales Oh My Goodness...
The holiday season is in full-swing, which means a whole lot of iOS apps and games are going on sale. A bunch already have, in fact. Naturally this means we’re putting together a hand-picked list of the best discounts and sales we can find in order... | Read more »
It’s Bird vs. Bird in the New PvP Mode f...
It’s Bird vs. Bird in the New PvP Mode for Angry Birds Epic Posted by Jessica Fisher on December 19th, 2014 [ permalink ] Universal App - Designed for iPhone and iPad | Read more »
Telltale Games and Mojang Announce Minec...
Telltale Games and Mojang Announce Minecraft: Story Mode – A Telltale Games Series Posted by Jessica Fisher on December 19th, 2014 [ permalink ] | Read more »
WarChest and Splash Damage Annouce Their...
WarChest and Splash Damage Annouce Their New Game: Tempo Posted by Jessica Fisher on December 19th, 2014 [ permalink ] WarChest Ltd and Splash Damage Ltd are teaming up again to work | Read more »
BulkyPix Celebrates its 6th Anniversary...
BulkyPix Celebrates its 6th Anniversary with a Bunch of Free Games Posted by Jessica Fisher on December 19th, 2014 [ permalink ] BulkyPix has | Read more »
Indulge in Japanese cuisine in Cooking F...
Indulge in Japanese cuisine in Cooking Fever’s new sushi-themed update Posted by Simon Reed on December 19th, 2014 [ permalink ] Lithuanian developer Nordcurrent has yet again updated its restaurant simulat | Read more »
Badland Daydream Level Pack Arrives to C...
Badland Daydream Level Pack Arrives to Celebrate 20 Million Downloads Posted by Ellis Spice on December 19th, 2014 [ permalink ] | Read more »
Far Cry 4, Assassin’s Creed Unity, Desti...
Far Cry 4, Assassin’s Creed Unity, Destiny, and Beyond – AppSpy Takes a Look at AAA Companion Apps Posted by Rob Rich on December 19th, 2014 [ permalink ] These day | Read more »
A Bunch of Halfbrick Games Are Going Fre...
A Bunch of Halfbrick Games Are Going Free for the Holidays Posted by Ellis Spice on December 19th, 2014 [ permalink ] Universal App - Designed for iPhone and iPad | Read more »

Price Scanner via MacPrices.net

The Apple Store offering free next-day shippi...
The Apple Store is now offering free next-day shipping on all in stock items if ordered before 12/23/14 at 10:00am PT. Local store pickup is also available within an hour of ordering for any in stock... Read more
It’s 1992 Again At Sony Pictures, Except For...
Techcrunch’s John Biggs interviewed a Sony Pictures Entertainment (SPE) employee, who quite understandably wished to remain anonymous, regarding post-hack conditions in SPE’s L.A office, explaining “... Read more
Holiday sales this weekend: MacBook Pros for...
 B&H Photo has new MacBook Pros on sale for up to $300 off MSRP as part of their Holiday pricing. Shipping is free, and B&H charges NY sales tax only: - 15″ 2.2GHz Retina MacBook Pro: $1699... Read more
Holiday sales this weekend: MacBook Airs for...
B&H Photo has 2014 MacBook Airs on sale for up to $120 off MSRP, for a limited time, for the Thanksgiving/Christmas Holiday shopping season. Shipping is free, and B&H charges NY sales tax... Read more
Holiday sales this weekend: iMacs for up to $...
B&H Photo has 21″ and 27″ iMacs on sale for up to $200 off MSRP including free shipping plus NY sales tax only. B&H will also include a free copy of Parallels Desktop software: - 21″ 1.4GHz... Read more
Holiday sales this weekend: Mac minis availab...
B&H Photo has new 2014 Mac minis on sale for up to $80 off MSRP. Shipping is free, and B&H charges NY sales tax only: - 1.4GHz Mac mini: $459 $40 off MSRP - 2.6GHz Mac mini: $629 $70 off MSRP... Read more
Holiday sales this weekend: Mac Pros for up t...
B&H Photo has Mac Pros on sale for up to $500 off MSRP. Shipping is free, and B&H charges sales tax in NY only: - 3.7GHz 4-core Mac Pro: $2599, $400 off MSRP - 3.5GHz 6-core Mac Pro: $3499, $... Read more
Save up to $400 on MacBooks with Apple Certif...
The Apple Store has Apple Certified Refurbished 2014 MacBook Pros and MacBook Airs available for up to $400 off the cost of new models. An Apple one-year warranty is included with each model, and... Read more
Save up to $300 on Macs, $30 on iPads with Ap...
Purchase a new Mac or iPad at The Apple Store for Education and take up to $300 off MSRP. All teachers, students, and staff of any educational institution qualify for the discount. Shipping is free,... Read more
iOS and Android OS Targeted by Man-in-the-Mid...
Cloud services security provider Akamai Technologies, Inc. has released, through the company’s Prolexic Security Engineering & Research Team (PLXsert), a new cybersecurity threat advisory. The... Read more

Jobs Board

*Apple* Store Leader Program (US) - Apple, I...
…Summary Learn and grow as you explore the art of leadership at the Apple Store. You'll master our retail business inside and out through training, hands-on experience, Read more
Project Manager, *Apple* Financial Services...
**Job Summary** Apple Financial Services (AFS) offers consumers, businesses and educational institutions ways to finance Apple purchases. We work with national and Read more
*Apple* Retail - Multiple Positions (US) - A...
Sales Specialist - Retail Customer Service and Sales Transform Apple Store visitors into loyal Apple customers. When customers enter the store, you're also the Read more
*Apple* Retail - Multiple Positions (US) - A...
Sales Specialist - Retail Customer Service and Sales Transform Apple Store visitors into loyal Apple customers. When customers enter the store, you're also the Read more
*Apple* Retail - Multiple Positions (US) - A...
Job Description: Sales Specialist - Retail Customer Service and Sales Transform Apple Store visitors into loyal Apple customers. When customers enter the store, Read more
All contents are Copyright 1984-2011 by Xplain Corporation. All rights reserved. Theme designed by Icreon.