'iPhone 5' could boost GDP of the U.S.
According to a new report by the J.P. Morgan research group, the release of the "iPhone 5" could potentially add between 1/4 to 1/2%-point to fourth quarter annualized GDP [growth domestic product] growth of the U.S. The next gen iPhone is expected to be announced tomorrow by Apple at a special media event.
"Our equity analysts believe around eight million iPhone 5's will be sold in the US in Q4, even while sales of previous generation iPhones are maintained at a solid pace," says J.P. Morgan. "While we have no idea how much these will retail for, if it is similar to previous launches it would be around US$600. Likewise, if the imported cost component is similar to previous leading generation phones it would imply around a $200 per phone addition to imports (which is a subtraction from GDP). The difference between these two figures, $400, would represent the trade margins, which figure into GDP."
Thus, calculated using the so-called retail control method, sales of iPhone 5 could boost Q4 GDP by $3.2 billion, or $12.8 billion at an annual rate, according to the research group. This would boost annualized GDP growth in Q4 by 0.33%-point.
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