Greg's bite: why Android has peaked
TweetFollow Us on Twitter

Greg's bite: why Android has peaked

By Greg Mills

When the Motorola/Apple cell phone came out in the summer of 2005, it was a great disappointment to both Apple and Apple fans. You might as well have taped an iPod to a standard cell phone. It sucked. Apple, by that point in time, already knew to do a cell phone right; they would have to start from scratch. The first thing they did was junk their cell phone engineering relationship with Motorola and scrap conventional notions of what a cell phone was.  

Then, the engineers and designers at Apple began to put the combination of novel software and touch screen hardware together that became the first iPhone. Since that time, Apple has taught Motorola a thing or two about smart cell phones. For that matter, every manufacturer of cell phones has been taken to the wood shed by Apple for a sound beating.  

The punishment continues as everyone in the cell phone industry has been made virtual  roadkill by the great Mac truck with an Apple logo on the hood. Share prices of all the competition continue to either stagnate or sharply decline as Apple grows its market share at their expense. 

The PC industry had more or less thrived over the years with the business relationship with Microsoft where the hardware companies made PC computers and Microsoft provided the operating system software that ran them. That relationship could well have continued with cell handset manufactures had Microsoft moved into the smartphone OS space in a timely fashion.  Google saw the opening and captured the opportunity.  

Since Microsoft's windows cell phone software was so uninspired, years later they are still trying to catch up.  Recent reports are that a number of handset manufacturers running Windows Mobile are quite disappointed with sales. The top echelon of creative people at Microsoft are reportedly going elsewhere in droves right now. There doesn't seem to be enough incentive offered to hold them down in a stifling creative environment under Ballmer. Support for the Windows phone OS has to be seen as the handset manufacturers hedging their bets against Android tanking for legal reasons. Keep in mind that all the Android OS handset makers have been sued by Apple over foundation aspects of the Android OS.

Google took the Apple iOS and created a similar look and feel using open source elements. They filled the OS vacuum the cell phone companies were seeking to fill since building the physical phone, that would do most of what an iPhone could do, was pretty well understood. The Apple DNA that has turned up in the form of proprietary chips is much harder to match as is the software. Apple was very careful to patent every aspect of the iOS early in the game. Patents filed before anyone outside Apple had ever seen an iPhone are just being issued and there is a ton of additional patents in process. Add the tendency for Apple to purchase patent rights whenever possible, and you have a potential nightmare brewing for the Android platform.

What has transpired during the exclusive marketing phase of the Apple/AT&T business relationship, is that the demand for iPhone in markets where it wasn't available, created an "iPhone vacuum." Nature abhors a vacuum and so do high tech markets. There is just too much money out there to not fulfill a major demand in the multibillion dollar cell phone industry.  

That is where Android came in. The competition for cell phone handset manufacturers was such that they were left high and dry, clamoring for some sort of off the shelf OS to make their phones "smart." RIM and Nokia have their own OS and, of course, Windows is now being offered.  Android is farther along in market share for smart phones, while the Nokia Sybian has a large installed base but doesn't seem to be gaining traction.  

The proof of what I am saying is apparent at Verizon. Android phones are on sale for $100 with a two-year contract since Verizon thinks the iPhone is going to suck the air out of the room when it goes on sale.  

You remember dumb phones? My last dumb phone was a Motorola flip phone that ran on the Nextel network. After Nextel was hijacked by Sprint, I counted the days until the iPhone came out and my contract with Sprint expired to allowed me to switch to AT&T. Despite all my complaints about dropped calls on AT&T, they did have a much better customer service system than Sprint did.  

The "dumb phones" still amount to roughly 80% of all cell phones out there. Smart phones are the 20% that includes iPhone, Android, RIM and a number of other minor players. Dumb phone users are well aware of the cool things smart phones do and are willing to switch when they are legally able to. They're often held back by contracts that normally are of a two-year duration.  They also are aware of the features the iPhone offers and want the real thing. When the cell companies can't deliver a real iPhone, the alternative is likely an Android phone. That is a just temporary market niche.  

It is the "real thing" vs the alternative offering that is the declining marketing reality Android phone makers now face. The PC press gleefully touts the numbers that show Android outselling the iPhone. The reason for that sales advantage is simply that the now expired exclusive marketing plan Apple used to launch and develop its entire smartphone infrastructure drove that market. That foundation is fully established and Apple is now tooled up to offer iPhones and iPad in both of the two main radio formats used by cell phone companies around the world. Even variations in the frequencies used are now easy to adapt in new iPhones.  

Watch the Verizon phone sell like hotcakes and within a short period of time Apple to also begin to sell iPhones to the other US cell companies. At that point, the real thing is available to everyone, and the alternative touch screen smart phones are toast. This is going to amount to a marketing holocaust for Android within a year's time. Look for the numbers of fresh Android phones sold to drop off precipitously and handset makers to become even more competitive as the Android market shrinks. 

Then there is the issue of the patent infringement suits waiting in the wings. All the Android phone companies have an Apple Federal Lawsuit sitting on their attorneys' desks claiming their touch screen phones are violating Apple patents. This promises to be blood bath #2 for the Android industry. First Apple sells the iPhone everywhere capturing much more of the market ,and then the legal assault begins to completely take them out.  

In addition to the market and legal issues are inherent weakness in Android due to open source issues and the enormous fragmentation in Android App stores and rampant piracy. Developers in the Android platform face as much as a 90% piracy rate  I have never heard much about piracy in the iOS app market except for "jail broken" iPhones, which are numerically insignificant.  

For all the above reasons, Android is set to fall off.  

That's Greg's bite for today.

(Greg Mills is currently a Faux Artist in Kansas City. Formerly a new product R&D man for the paint sundry market, he holds 11 US patents. He's working on a solar energy startup using a patent pending process of turning waste dual pane glass into thermal solar panels used to heat water. Married, with one daughter still at home, Greg writes for intellectual web sites and Mac related issues. See Greg's web sites at http://www.gregmills.info . He can be emailed at gregmills.mac.)

 

Community Search:
MacTech Search:

Software Updates via MacUpdate

Cloud 4.1.1 - File sharing from your men...
Cloud is simple file sharing for the Mac. Drag a file from your Mac to the CloudApp icon in the menubar and we take care of the rest. A link to the file will automatically be copied to your clipboard... Read more
OmniFocus 2.7.1 - GTD task manager with...
OmniFocus helps you manage your tasks the way that you want, freeing you to focus your attention on the things that matter to you most. Capturing tasks and ideas is always a keyboard shortcut away in... Read more
CleanApp 5.1.1 - Application deinstaller...
CleanApp is an application deinstaller and archiver.... Your hard drive gets fuller day by day, but do you know why? CleanApp 5 provides you with insights how to reclaim disk space. There are... Read more
ForkLift 3.0 Beta 2 - Powerful file mana...
ForkLift is a powerful file manager and ferociously fast FTP client clothed in a clean and versatile UI that offers the combination of absolute simplicity and raw power expected from a well-executed... Read more
Sublime Text 3126 - Sophisticated text e...
Sublime Text is a sophisticated text editor for code, markup, and prose. You'll love the slick user interface, extraordinary features, and amazing performance. Features Goto Anything. Use Goto... Read more
1Password 6.3.3 - Powerful password mana...
1Password is a password manager that uniquely brings you both security and convenience. It is the only program that provides anti-phishing protection and goes beyond password management by adding Web... Read more
WhatsApp 0.2.1880 - Desktop client for W...
WhatsApp is the desktop client for WhatsApp Messenger, a cross-platform mobile messaging app which allows you to exchange messages without having to pay for SMS. WhatsApp Messenger is available for... Read more
NeoFinder 6.9.3 - Catalog your external...
NeoFinder (formerly CDFinder) rapidly organizes your data, either on external or internal disks, or any other volumes. It catalogs all your data, so you stay in control of your data archive or disk... Read more
Amadeus Pro 2.3.1 - Multitrack sound rec...
Amadeus Pro lets you use your Mac computer for any audio-related task, such as live audio recording, digitizing tapes and records, converting between a variety of sound formats, etc. Thanks to its... Read more
Yasu 4.0.0 β - System maintenance app; p...
Yasu was created with System Administrators who service large groups of workstations in mind, Yasu (Yet Another System Utility) was made to do a specific group of maintenance tasks quickly within a... Read more

Our 5 Favorite iMessage Sticker Packs
At long last, iMessage joins the ranks of messaging apps the likes of LINE and Whatsapp, adding an impressive collection of stickers. They’re a great way to add a little something extra to your daily conversations. [Read more] | Read more »
How to get past Vulture Island's tr...
Vulture Island is a colorful and quirky mish-mash of platforming and puzzles. It’s creative and fresh, but sometimes the game can throw a curveball at you, leaving you stuck as to how you should progress. These tips will help you explore smoothly... | Read more »
The new Clash of Kings is just for Weste...
If you’ve played the original Clash of Kings, you’ll probably recognise the city building, alliance forging and strategic battles in Clash of Kings: The West. What sets this version apart is that it’s tailor made for a Western audience and the... | Read more »
Frost - Survival card game (Games)
Frost - Survival card game 1.12.1 Device: iOS Universal Category: Games Price: $3.99, Version: 1.12.1 (iTunes) Description: *Warning: the game will work on iPhone 5C and above and iPad Pro / 4. Other devices are not supported* | Read more »
How to build and care for your team in D...
Before you hit the trail and become a dog sledding legend, there’s actually a fair bit of prep work to be done. In Dog Sled Saga, you’re not only racing, you’re also building and caring for a team of furry friends. There’s a lot to consider—... | Read more »
How to win every race in Dog Sled Saga
If I had to guess, I’d say Dog Sled Saga is the most adorable racing game on the App Store right now. It’s a dog sled racing sim full of adorable, loyal puppies. Just look at those fluffy little tails wagging. Behind that cute, pixelated facade is... | Read more »
Let the war games commence in Gunship Ba...
Buzz Lightyear famously said, “This isn’t flying, this is falling – with style!” In the case of Gunship Battle: Second War, though, this really is flying - with style! The flight simulator app from Joycity puts you in control of 20 faithfully... | Read more »
How to get a high score in Fired Up
Fired Up is Noodlecake Games’ high score chasing, firefighting adventure. You take control of a wayward firefighter who propels himself up the side of a highrise with blasts of water. Sound silly? It is. It’s also pretty difficult. You can’t... | Read more »
NBA 2K17 (Games)
NBA 2K17 1.0 Device: iOS iPhone Category: Games Price: $7.99, Version: 1.0 (iTunes) Description: Following the record-breaking launch of NBA 2K16, the NBA 2K franchise continues to stake its claim as the most authentic sports video... | Read more »
Dog Sled Saga (Games)
Dog Sled Saga 1.0.1 Device: iOS Universal Category: Games Price: $3.99, Version: 1.0.1 (iTunes) Description: A game by Dan + Lisa As a rookie musher, foster a dogsledding team whose skills will grow if they're treated right. Week by... | Read more »

Price Scanner via MacPrices.net

Toughbook Celebrates 20 Years of Ruggedized M...
Panasonic System Communications Company of North America, Division of Panasonic Corporation of North America (Panasonic) today celebrates the 20th anniversary of its industry-leading Toughbook mobile... Read more
13-inch 2.5GHz MacBook Pro (Apple refurbished...
Apple has Certified Refurbished 13″ 2.5GHz MacBook Pros available for $829, or $270 off the cost of new models. Apple’s one-year warranty is standard, and shipping is free: - 13″ 2.5GHz MacBook Pros... Read more
Save 30% on Camera Guard’s Secure Protection...
To celebrate the release of macOS Sierra, Miami-based security solutions company, ProtectStar has announced a special 30% discount on Camera Guard Professional for Mac 2016. This innovative security... Read more
DVDFab Special Deal – Get a 1-Year Free Licen...
Beijing, China based specialist in the field of DVD, Blu-ray and video backup solutions, Fengtao Software has launched its Autumn Special Deals 2016, giving a 1-year free license of a randomly picked... Read more
21-inch iMacs on sale for up to $120 off MSRP
B&H Photo has 21″ iMacs on sale for up to $120 off MSRP including free shipping plus NY sales tax only: - 21″ 3.1GHz iMac 4K: $1379 $120 off MSRP - 21″ 2.8GHz iMac: $1199.99 $100 off MSRP - 21″ 1... Read more
13-inch 2.7GHz/256GB Retina MacBook Pro on sa...
Amazon.com has the 13″ 2.7GHz/256GB Retina Apple MacBook Pro on sale for $151 off MSRP including free shipping: - 13″ 2.7GHz/256GB Retina MacBook Pro (sku MF840LL/A): $1348 $151 off MSRP Read more
Apple TVs on sale for up to $50 off MSRP
Best Buy has 32GB and 64GB Apple TVs on sale for $40-$50 off MSRP on their online store. Choose free shipping or free local store pickup (if available). Sale prices for online orders only, in-store... Read more
Apple refurbished 13-inch Retina MacBook Pros...
Apple has Certified Refurbished 13″ Retina MacBook Pros available for up to $270 off the cost of new models. An Apple one-year warranty is included with each model, and shipping is free: - 13″ 2.7GHz... Read more
Duplicate Sweeper Free On Mac App Store For O...
To celebrate the launch of Apple’s latest macOS Sierra, Stafford, United Kingdom based Wide Angle Software has announced that its duplicate file finder software, Duplicate Sweeper, is now available... Read more
13-inch Retina MacBook Pros on sale for up to...
B&H Photo has 13″ Retina Apple MacBook Pros on sale for up to $150 off MSRP. Shipping is free, and B&H charges NY tax only: - 13″ 2.7GHz/128GB Retina MacBook Pro: $1174.99 $125 off MSRP - 13... Read more

Jobs Board

Sr. *Apple* Mac Engineer - Net2Source Inc....
…staffing, training and technology. We have following position open with our client. Sr. Apple Mac Engineer6+ Months CTH Start date : 19th Sept Travelling Job If Read more
*Apple* Retail - Multiple Positions-Norfolk,...
Job Description: Sales Specialist - Retail Customer Service and Sales Transform Apple Store visitors into loyal Apple customers. When customers enter the store, Read more
Restaurant Manager (Neighborhood Captain) - A...
…in every aspect of daily operation. WHY YOU'LL LIKE IT: You'll be the Big Apple . You'll solve problems. You'll get to show your ability to handle the stress and Read more
Lead *Apple* Solutions Consultant - Apple (...
# Lead Apple Solutions Consultant Job Number: 51829230 Detroit, Michigan, United States Posted: Sep. 19, 2016 Weekly Hours: 40.00 **Job Summary** The Lead ASC is an Read more
US- *Apple* Store Leader Program - Apple (Un...
…Summary Learn and grow as you explore the art of leadership at the Apple Store. You'll master our retail business inside and out through training, hands-on Read more
All contents are Copyright 1984-2011 by Xplain Corporation. All rights reserved. Theme designed by Icreon.