Greg's bite: why Android has peaked
TweetFollow Us on Twitter

Greg's bite: why Android has peaked

By Greg Mills

When the Motorola/Apple cell phone came out in the summer of 2005, it was a great disappointment to both Apple and Apple fans. You might as well have taped an iPod to a standard cell phone. It sucked. Apple, by that point in time, already knew to do a cell phone right; they would have to start from scratch. The first thing they did was junk their cell phone engineering relationship with Motorola and scrap conventional notions of what a cell phone was.  

Then, the engineers and designers at Apple began to put the combination of novel software and touch screen hardware together that became the first iPhone. Since that time, Apple has taught Motorola a thing or two about smart cell phones. For that matter, every manufacturer of cell phones has been taken to the wood shed by Apple for a sound beating.  

The punishment continues as everyone in the cell phone industry has been made virtual  roadkill by the great Mac truck with an Apple logo on the hood. Share prices of all the competition continue to either stagnate or sharply decline as Apple grows its market share at their expense. 

The PC industry had more or less thrived over the years with the business relationship with Microsoft where the hardware companies made PC computers and Microsoft provided the operating system software that ran them. That relationship could well have continued with cell handset manufactures had Microsoft moved into the smartphone OS space in a timely fashion.  Google saw the opening and captured the opportunity.  

Since Microsoft's windows cell phone software was so uninspired, years later they are still trying to catch up.  Recent reports are that a number of handset manufacturers running Windows Mobile are quite disappointed with sales. The top echelon of creative people at Microsoft are reportedly going elsewhere in droves right now. There doesn't seem to be enough incentive offered to hold them down in a stifling creative environment under Ballmer. Support for the Windows phone OS has to be seen as the handset manufacturers hedging their bets against Android tanking for legal reasons. Keep in mind that all the Android OS handset makers have been sued by Apple over foundation aspects of the Android OS.

Google took the Apple iOS and created a similar look and feel using open source elements. They filled the OS vacuum the cell phone companies were seeking to fill since building the physical phone, that would do most of what an iPhone could do, was pretty well understood. The Apple DNA that has turned up in the form of proprietary chips is much harder to match as is the software. Apple was very careful to patent every aspect of the iOS early in the game. Patents filed before anyone outside Apple had ever seen an iPhone are just being issued and there is a ton of additional patents in process. Add the tendency for Apple to purchase patent rights whenever possible, and you have a potential nightmare brewing for the Android platform.

What has transpired during the exclusive marketing phase of the Apple/AT&T business relationship, is that the demand for iPhone in markets where it wasn't available, created an "iPhone vacuum." Nature abhors a vacuum and so do high tech markets. There is just too much money out there to not fulfill a major demand in the multibillion dollar cell phone industry.  

That is where Android came in. The competition for cell phone handset manufacturers was such that they were left high and dry, clamoring for some sort of off the shelf OS to make their phones "smart." RIM and Nokia have their own OS and, of course, Windows is now being offered.  Android is farther along in market share for smart phones, while the Nokia Sybian has a large installed base but doesn't seem to be gaining traction.  

The proof of what I am saying is apparent at Verizon. Android phones are on sale for $100 with a two-year contract since Verizon thinks the iPhone is going to suck the air out of the room when it goes on sale.  

You remember dumb phones? My last dumb phone was a Motorola flip phone that ran on the Nextel network. After Nextel was hijacked by Sprint, I counted the days until the iPhone came out and my contract with Sprint expired to allowed me to switch to AT&T. Despite all my complaints about dropped calls on AT&T, they did have a much better customer service system than Sprint did.  

The "dumb phones" still amount to roughly 80% of all cell phones out there. Smart phones are the 20% that includes iPhone, Android, RIM and a number of other minor players. Dumb phone users are well aware of the cool things smart phones do and are willing to switch when they are legally able to. They're often held back by contracts that normally are of a two-year duration.  They also are aware of the features the iPhone offers and want the real thing. When the cell companies can't deliver a real iPhone, the alternative is likely an Android phone. That is a just temporary market niche.  

It is the "real thing" vs the alternative offering that is the declining marketing reality Android phone makers now face. The PC press gleefully touts the numbers that show Android outselling the iPhone. The reason for that sales advantage is simply that the now expired exclusive marketing plan Apple used to launch and develop its entire smartphone infrastructure drove that market. That foundation is fully established and Apple is now tooled up to offer iPhones and iPad in both of the two main radio formats used by cell phone companies around the world. Even variations in the frequencies used are now easy to adapt in new iPhones.  

Watch the Verizon phone sell like hotcakes and within a short period of time Apple to also begin to sell iPhones to the other US cell companies. At that point, the real thing is available to everyone, and the alternative touch screen smart phones are toast. This is going to amount to a marketing holocaust for Android within a year's time. Look for the numbers of fresh Android phones sold to drop off precipitously and handset makers to become even more competitive as the Android market shrinks. 

Then there is the issue of the patent infringement suits waiting in the wings. All the Android phone companies have an Apple Federal Lawsuit sitting on their attorneys' desks claiming their touch screen phones are violating Apple patents. This promises to be blood bath #2 for the Android industry. First Apple sells the iPhone everywhere capturing much more of the market ,and then the legal assault begins to completely take them out.  

In addition to the market and legal issues are inherent weakness in Android due to open source issues and the enormous fragmentation in Android App stores and rampant piracy. Developers in the Android platform face as much as a 90% piracy rate  I have never heard much about piracy in the iOS app market except for "jail broken" iPhones, which are numerically insignificant.  

For all the above reasons, Android is set to fall off.  

That's Greg's bite for today.

(Greg Mills is currently a Faux Artist in Kansas City. Formerly a new product R&D man for the paint sundry market, he holds 11 US patents. He's working on a solar energy startup using a patent pending process of turning waste dual pane glass into thermal solar panels used to heat water. Married, with one daughter still at home, Greg writes for intellectual web sites and Mac related issues. See Greg's web sites at http://www.gregmills.info . He can be emailed at gregmills.mac.)

 

Community Search:
MacTech Search:

Software Updates via MacUpdate

Lyn 1.7.2 - Lightweight image browser an...
Lyn is a fast, lightweight image browser and viewer designed for photographers, graphic artists, and Web designers. Featuring an extremely versatile and aesthetically pleasing interface, it delivers... Read more
Tunnelblick 3.6.7beta02 - GUI for OpenVP...
Tunnelblick is a free, open source graphic user interface for OpenVPN on OS X. It provides easy control of OpenVPN client and/or server connections. It comes as a ready-to-use application with all... Read more
jAlbum Pro 13.4 - Organize your digital...
jAlbum Pro has all the features you love in jAlbum, but comes with a commercial license. You can create gorgeous custom photo galleries for the Web without writing a line of code! Beginner-friendly... Read more
calibre 2.65.1 - Complete e-book library...
Calibre is a complete e-book library manager. Organize your collection, convert your books to multiple formats, and sync with all of your devices. Let Calibre be your multi-tasking digital librarian... Read more
jAlbum 13.4 - Create custom photo galler...
With jAlbum, you can create gorgeous custom photo galleries for the Web without writing a line of code! Beginner-friendly, with pro results - Simply drag and drop photos into groups, choose a design... Read more
Backblaze 4.2.0.966 - Online backup serv...
Backblaze is an online backup service designed from the ground-up for the Mac. With unlimited storage available for $5 per month, as well as a free 15-day trial, peace of mind is within reach with... Read more
Backblaze 4.2.0.966 - Online backup serv...
Backblaze is an online backup service designed from the ground-up for the Mac. With unlimited storage available for $5 per month, as well as a free 15-day trial, peace of mind is within reach with... Read more
Tunnelblick 3.6.7beta02 - GUI for OpenVP...
Tunnelblick is a free, open source graphic user interface for OpenVPN on OS X. It provides easy control of OpenVPN client and/or server connections. It comes as a ready-to-use application with all... Read more
calibre 2.65.1 - Complete e-book library...
Calibre is a complete e-book library manager. Organize your collection, convert your books to multiple formats, and sync with all of your devices. Let Calibre be your multi-tasking digital librarian... Read more
jAlbum Pro 13.4 - Organize your digital...
jAlbum Pro has all the features you love in jAlbum, but comes with a commercial license. You can create gorgeous custom photo galleries for the Web without writing a line of code! Beginner-friendly... Read more

Clean Text (Productivity)
Clean Text 1.0 Device: iOS Universal Category: Productivity Price: $3.99, Version: 1.0 (iTunes) Description: | Read more »
Gemini - A Journey of Two Stars (Games)
Gemini - A Journey of Two Stars 1.0.1 Device: iOS Universal Category: Games Price: $2.99, Version: 1.0.1 (iTunes) Description: *** SPECIAL LAUNCH SALE: $2.99 (25% off) *** "A mesmerizing and unexpectedly emotional journey." -- Los... | Read more »
How to get four NFL superstars for your...
Even though you're probably well on your way to building a top notch squad for the new season in Madden NFL Mobile, let's say you could beef it up by adding Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown, Von Miller, and Todd Gurley to your roster. That's... | Read more »
Cartoon Network Superstar Soccer: Goal!!...
Cartoon Network Superstar Soccer: Goal!!! – Multiplayer Sports Game Starring Your Favorite Characters 1.0 Device: iOS Universal Category: Games Price: $2.99, Version: 1.0 (iTunes) Description: Become a soccer superstar with your... | Read more »
NFL Huddle: What's new in Topps NFL...
Can you smell that? It's the scent of pigskin in the air, which either means that cliches be damned, pigs are flying in your neck of the woods, or the new NFL season is right around the corner. [Read more] | Read more »
FarmVille: Tropic Escape tips, tricks, a...
Maybe farming is passé in mobile games now. Ah, but farming -- and doing a lot of a other things too -- in an island paradise might be a little different. At least you can work on your tan and sip some pina coladas while tending to your crops. [... | Read more »
Become the King of Avalon in FunPlus’ la...
King Arthur is dead. Considering the legend dates back to the 5th century, it would be surprising if he wasn’t. But in the context of real-time MMO game King of Avalon: Dragon Warfare, Arthur’s death plunges the kingdom into chaos. Evil sorceress... | Read more »
Nightgate (Games)
Nightgate 1.0 Device: iOS Universal Category: Games Price: $2.99, Version: 1.0 (iTunes) Description: *** Launch Sale: 25% OFF for a limited time! *** In the year 2398, after a great war, a network of intelligent computers known as... | Read more »
3 best fantasy football apps to get you...
Last season didn't go the way you wanted it to in fantasy football. You were super happy following your drafts or auctions, convinced you had outsmarted everyone. You were all set to hustle on the waiver wire, work out some sweet trades, and make... | Read more »
Pokemon GO update: Take me to your leade...
The Team Leaders in Pokemon GO have had it pretty easy up until now. They show up when players reach level 5, make their cases for joining their respective teams, and that's pretty much it. Light work, as Floyd Mayweather might say. [Read more] | Read more »

Price Scanner via MacPrices.net

Global Tablet Shipments Projected to Increase...
Digitimes’ Jim Hsiao reports that global tablet shipments will increase by 16.3 percent sequentially to reach nearly 47 million units in 2016′s third quarter, but that volume will still be down over... Read more
Apple’s 2016 Back to School promotion: Free B...
Purchase a new Mac or iPad using Apple’s Education Store and take up to $300 off MSRP. All teachers, students, and staff of any educational institution qualify for the discount. Shipping is free, and... Read more
Apple refurbished iPad Air 2s available start...
Apple has Certified Refurbished iPad Air 2 available starting at $339. Apple’s one-year warranty is included with each model, and shipping is free: - 128GB Wi-Fi iPad Air 2: $499 - 64GB Wi-Fi iPad... Read more
13-inch 2.5GHz MacBook Pro available for $961...
Overstock has the 13″ 2.5GHz MacBook Pro available for $961.63 including free shipping. Their price is $138 off MSRP. Read more
Clearance 12-inch Retina MacBooks, Apple refu...
Apple has Certified Refurbished 2015 12″ Retina MacBooks available starting at $929. Apple will include a standard one-year warranty with each MacBook, and shipping is free. The following... Read more
BookBook Releases SurfacePad, BookBook &...
BookBook has released three new covers just for iPad Pro: SurfacePad, BookBook and BookBook Rutledge Edition. BookBook for iPad Pro is a gorgeous leather case reminiscent of a vintage sketchbook.... Read more
Clean Text 1.0 for iOS Reduces Text Cleanup a...
Apimac today announced availability of Clean Text for iOS, a tool for webmasters, graphic designers, developers and magazine editors to reduce text cleanup and editing time, and also for any iPhone... Read more
27-inch iMacs on sale for up to $220 off MSRP
B&H Photo has 27″ Apple iMacs on sale for up to $200 off MSRP including free shipping plus NY sales tax only: - 27″ 3.3GHz iMac 5K: $2099 $200 off MSRP - 27″ 3.2GHz/1TB Fusion iMac 5K: $1899 $100... Read more
Apple refurbished 13-inch MacBook Airs availa...
Apple has Certified Refurbished 2016 and 2015 13″ MacBook Airs now available starting at $849. An Apple one-year warranty is included with each MacBook, and shipping is free: - 2016 13″ 1.6GHz/8GB/... Read more
Apple refurbished iPad mini 2s available for...
Apple is offering Certified Refurbished iPad mini 2s for up to $80 off the cost of new minis. An Apple one-year warranty is included with each model, and shipping is free: - 16GB iPad mini 2 WiFi: $... Read more

Jobs Board

Hardware Design Validation Engineer - *Apple...
Changing the world is all in a day's work at Apple . If you love innovation, here's your chance to make a career of it. You'll work hard. But the job comes with more Read more
*Apple* /Mac Support Engineer - GFI Digital,...
FI Digital, Inc. is currently seeking candidates for a full time Apple Support Engineer to add to our Maryland Heights, Missouri IT team. Candidates must be dynamic Read more
*Apple* Solutions Consultant - Apple (United...
Apple Solutions ConsultantJob Number: 51218534Pleasant Hill, California, United StatesPosted: Aug. 18, 2016Weekly Hours: 40.00Job SummaryAs an Apple Solutions Read more
SW Engineer *Apple* TV - Apple Inc. (United...
The Apple TV team is looking for excellent software engineers with experience in hardware, media management, media playback, content delivery and a passion for Read more
*Apple* Retail - Multiple Positions (US) - A...
Job Description: Sales Specialist - Retail Customer Service and Sales Transform Apple Store visitors into loyal Apple customers. When customers enter the store, Read more
All contents are Copyright 1984-2011 by Xplain Corporation. All rights reserved. Theme designed by Icreon.