My 2010 predictions -- how I'd do?
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My 2010 predictions -- how I'd do?

A year ago I made my predictions for what Apple would do in 2010. So let's see how effective I was.

First prediction: By spring we'll see new versions of iLife and iWork, which will probably be dubbed iLife X and iWork X instead of iLife '10 and iWork '10.

The truth: iLife wasn't introduced until October -- and it was dubbed iLife '11, not iLife X. iWork '11/X never showed up.

Second prediction: iWork.com will come out of beta and Apple will promote it heavily along with iWork. iWork is a service Apple is developing to share iWork ’09 documents online. Using your Apple ID, just click the iWork.com icon in the Keynote, Pages or Numbers toolbar to upload your document and invite others to view it online. Viewers can provide comments and notes, and download a copy of your document in iWork, Microsoft Office or PDF formats. A consolidated online list of all your shared documents indicates when your viewers have posted comments.

The truth: iWork.com is still in beta -- and you never hear Apple mention it.

Third prediction: Apple will release iPhone and iPod touch versions of iWork that will allow you to view and do some rudimentary editing of your Pages, Keynote and Numbers data on the handheld devices and sync those changes with your Mac.

The truth: no iPhone version was introduced, but iWork did come to the iPad. As for the syncing ability, well, there's still a LOT of kinks to work out.

Fourth prediction: The iPad will be introduced at a special Apple event on Jan. 26. At the time Apple will begin taking pre-orders, but the device won't ship until early March. It will have all the capabilities of the iPod touch, but will also support new features for ebooks and e-magazines. For example, you'll be able to subscribe to digital copies of newspaper and magazines and have them downloaded directly to your iPad/iTablet.

A wireless option will be available in conjunction with Verizon. However, there won't be a GPS feature. And the much-rumored Apple TV subscription service won't arrive until summer, so there'll be no support for that -- until the service is up and running.

The iPad will be available in two versions: a seven-inch model for $500 and a 10-inch version (with more capacity) for $800. If (and this is a big IF) Apple allows you to dock it and use it as a computer, this could spell the end of the MacBook Air line.

The truth: the iPad was introduced on Jan. 27, not the 26th, and it did ship in March. It did have ebook features, but the magazine subscription feature is still somewhere down the line. Verizon did offer a wireless option for the iPad, but it was much later in the year. There was no 7-inch iPad. And the MacBook Air is alive and well.

Fifth prediction: In the third quarter of 2010, Apple will also add Verizon as an iPhone carrier in the US, ending AT&T's exclusivity.

The truth: still hasn't happened. But I'm hoping for this in 2011.

Sixth prediction: Making use of its Lala purchase, Apple will introduce iTunes Replay in early spring. The service will allow iTunes shoppers to build up a digital video collection (music, movies, TV shows, etc.) without having to worry about the intensive storage space involved.

The truth: still hasn't happened.
Seventh prediction: The iPod classic, touch nano and shuffle will, as you'd expect, get increased capacities. Yes, I think the classic will be around for at least one more year. When it comes to storage, it offers the best bang for the buck and Apple knows it.

The truth: the iPod line was revamped and the classic is still around (though Apple is trying to keep it a secret). But there were few, if any, storage capacity updates.

Eighth prediction: On the Mac front, the laptops, Mac mini and iMac will keep the same form factor, though I think the Mac Pro will get a design overhaul. At long last Blu-ray will be offered as a build-to-order option on the Mac Pro, iMac and the high-end MacBook Pro (maybe other models).

Naturally, there'll be speed boosts, graphic enhancements and beefed-up storage while maintaining the current price points (there'll be at least one quad-core MacBook Pro released). And, no, I don't see Apple cutting prices substantially if at all. Despite this Apple's market share will continue to rise.

We'll see at least laptop and desktop models adding USB 3.0 support by the third quarter while still keeping the FireWire 800 port. The iMac and Mac Pro will also add eSATA ports for extra devices.

The truth: The Mac Pro didn't get a new form factor, USB 3.0 never made it to the Mac and Blu-ray still isn't offered as a build to offer option. Apple did cut prices a little, and the Mac's market share is on the rise.

Ninth prediction: Mac OS X 10.7 will be discussed at the 2010 Apple Worldwide Developer Conference. Unlike Snow Leopard, it will sport several new features beyond the "under-the-hood" improvements. Among them: a Finder with features akin to the Path Finder utility. Oh yes, the traditional file creator data system will be restored.

The truth: Mac OS X 7 (Lion) was announced, but not at WWDC (it was at a special October event). It will sport several new features, but they're more iOS-like than Path Finder-ish..

Tenth prediction: The thing I don't think will happen, but would love to see: an ultra high end, multimedia iMac with a 40-inch screen, built-in TV tuner, upgradable graphics and room for a second hard drive.

The truth: I was dead-on. It didn't happen. Well, actually, you can get an iMac with two drives -- an SSD and HDD.

-- Dennis Sellers

 
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