Satellite-capable smartwatches are projected to grow to 28% of total smartwatch shipments in 2030 from 2% in quarter three (Q3) of 2025, according to new data from Counterpoint Research.
Apple, Google, Garmin, and Huawei are leading the shift toward satellite-connected smartwatches, bringing two-way messaging and SOS functions beyond cellular coverages, notes the research group. Rising demand for safety, reliability and always-on communication, enabled by scalable and interoperable 3GPP NTN standards, is driving early satellite adoption, Counterpoint says.
According to Counterpoint Research Smartwatch NTN Tracker & Forecast, the early market (2025-2026) will be led by proprietary satellite solutions from players like Apple and Huawei. From 2027 onward, adoption will accelerate as standardized NB-NTN becomes mainstream, with Google, Garmin, and broader Android manufacturers integrating 3GPP-compliant satellite modems into their wearables.
Counterpoint says that, for now, satellite features are mostly limited to premium smartwatches priced above US$500, but this barrier should ease as NB-NTN scales. North America and Europe are leading adoption today, and China is expected to follow as ecosystem support continues to strengthen.
Adoption Drivers
Since Apple introduced its satellite SOS service in 2022 in smartphone and Huawei followed with Tiantong-based connectivity in 2023, satellite communication has moved from niche to mainstream awareness, the research group says. With standardized NB-NTN now beginning commercialization, smartwatches are poised to be early adopters due to their compact form factor and the growing demand for “always-on” connectivity.
Counterpoint predicts that adoption of satellite smartwatches will accelerate as users look for reliable communication beyond cellular coverage, especially during activities like trekking or in areas with patchy coverage.
In the third quarter of 2025, Apple extended its satellite features to the Apple Watch Ultra 3, enabling two-way NTN messaging and SOS functionality through its partnership with Globalstar. The S9 SiP inside the watch supports Globalstar’s L-band network for emergency communication and basic text exchange, making Apple one of the earliest movers in consumer satellite wearables.
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