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Analyst Gene Munster offers his 2011 predictions for Apple


In a note to clients — as reported by “Yahoo! Finance” (, following are the major announcements for Apple in 2011 with their probabilities and time tables:

° Verizon launch of the iPhone: Probability 95% (Munster expects this in the March quarter)

° Mac App Store: Probability 100% (well, we know he’s got this one right as Apple has announced a Jan. 6 launch)

° iTunes cloud services: Probability 90%

° iPad geographic expansion: Probability 100%

° iPad subsidies from carriers: Probability 80%

° Mac OS X Lion: Probability 100% (summer 2011)

Munster also expects a fifth generation iPhone to ship this summer with NFC capability. NFC is a short-range wireless connection technology that would turn the iPhone into an electronic wallet or security passkey, the article says. NFC is already in use in Asia and is expected to explode here in the next three to five years, especially if Apple adopts the technology.

The analyst thinks Apple will release the generation iPad in the spring. And he has “moderate confidence” that Apple will release redesigned MacBook Pros in the first half of 2011 and redesigned iMacs in the second half of the year. “As usual, we expect Apple to refresh its iPods in the fall,” he adds.

Finally, “for over a year, we have believed that Apple will enter the television market by the end of CY12 at the earliest,” Munster says. “While Apple’s commitment to the living room remains a ‘hobby,'” we continue to believe the company will enter the TV market with a full focus, as an all-in-one Apple television could move the needle when connected TVs proliferate. We also expect Apple to increasingly focus on web services that leverage its connected device ecosystem (i.e. iTunes cloud service, MobileMe, etc.).”

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