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Greg’s bite: Apple TV vs NetFlix numbers

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By Greg Mills

Apple TV numbers vs NetFlix: Gleacher & Co. analyst Brian Marshall estimated Apple is streaming magnitude of 500,000 TV shows and movies combined each day.  He estimates NetFlix streams 5.1 million programs a day.  

The difference is in the “go to market” plan which is charged per download with Apple and “all you can eat” with NetFlix. As I have mentioned in previous articles, the NetFlix plan makes a lot more sense than the Apple plan. Marshall extrapolates that Apple might see revenue of just over US$100 million per quarter, while NetFlix will see revenue of $550 million. The DVD in the mail from NetFlix is being phased out, so soon both companies will be strictly streaming content.  

Some have speculated that NetFlix’s greatest asset is its smooth “DVD in the mail system” using the US Post Office. I can testify DVDs going both ways through the mail come as fast as the bills do. When NetFlix goes strictly streaming, it remains to be seen if they can keep up the strong revenue stream and keep investors happy. As Apple fires up the new server farm and potentially a mirror site somewhere else, all it would take to compete with NetFlix head-on would be an alternative marketing program that also offers a monthly fee to stream all you want from the digital library.  

Another year, another PC slate bogged down with Windows Rumors are that Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer is going to show more slate computers running a tweaked and slimmed down version of Windows. Duh, have we been there before? It is generally noted that previous attempts to load down Windows on the parred down architecture of a slate computer results in a sluggish experience and a battery meltdown. Never learning anything from past failures, Microsoft is preparing for another beating in the market place.

Speaking of beatings, Microsoft Mobile Vista 7 phones have gone on sale with a “buy one, get one free” program from AT&T. Giving away cell phones is the kiss of death in the cell phone industry. Have you ever seen iPhones given away? Nope.

RIM admits the much anticipated slate BlackBerry called “PlayBook” is not being launched on time due to a serious problem with battery life. Rumors are that when Apple announced the battery life of the first iPhone, RIM’s engineers insisted to management that it was impossible to light up a touch screen the size of iPhones that long. With much embarrassment the RIM engineers upon opening the first iPhone they could tear down realized the iPhone was a battery with a tiny circuit board in a case which included a touch screen. Apple had done magic again.

The Dull Computer Companies “Streak” won the complete distain of Mossberg recently. More blood in the water it seems is just around the corner.

Apple is being sued again; this time the parties hope to gain “class status” to force Apple to stop surreptitiously gathering data on users of iOS devices and letting apps “phone home” to advertising companies (including Apple) with information gleaned from game usage and presumably web browsing.  Some developers are also being named for invading the privacy of users without notice. Steve Jobs himself stated that that is a no-no. Who would think playing Paper Toss, a game in which you flick wads of paper into a trash can, would subject you to being tracked by a number of advertising firms? Sometime, suing big companies is the only way to wake them up to what they are doing.

Apple is being re-sued by a co-founder of Microsoft, Paul Allen, over the notion that what you just bought might mean you want something else similar. One wonders how such a general concept rates a patent. The same patent case was dismissed by a Federal Court Judge as being too general and not specific enough to warrant a suit. Allen is trying again. We will see if it sticks or the entire patent is thrown out as being “obvious.” Most people don’t know that when you sue for infringement of a patent, a common result is that the patent is declared “invalid” for some reason. That is a likely outcome in this case.

Apple ordered 65 million iPad touch screens for next year according to a number of web sites. The screens are similar in size to the existing iPad but may be a higher resolution. If Apple actually sells 65 million iPads next year it promises to be a great year indeed for the company. I expect to be buying a second iPad next year and I know a number of other folks on the sidelines waiting for the iPad 2 with a camera (or two) included to buy into the iPad revolution.

CNN, in a John C. Dvorak sort of foott-in-mouth statement, declared the iPhone 4 one of the ten greatest tech failures of 2010. If ithe Phone 4, which has been in chronic short supply, is still flying off the shelf around the world is a failure, why is the rest of the tech world struggling so hard to catch-up with Apple’s phone? Is there something “CNN” and “Consumer Reports” know that is still unknown to the hundreds of millions who own iPhones?  I would like to trade my iPhoneGs in for a coming tech failure iPhone 5 sometime soon. Apple’s worst failures are great than most companies successes.

Android continues to flounder as the Verizon iPhone rumors continue to erode the market for iPhone knockoffs. Early number indicate that Android may have peaked as iPhone becomes available elsewhere when the AT&T monopoly expires. Many who embraced the Android are having second thoughts. The second-hand market for Android and Windows Vista 7 phones may drop to commodity price points.  Ebay has seven pages of used Windows Vista 7 phones for sale already.

That’s Greg’s bite for today.

(Greg Mills, is a Faux Artist in Kansas City. Formerly a new product R&D man for the paint sundry market, he holds 11 US patents. He’s working on a solar energy startup, www.CottageIndustrySolar.com using a patent pending process of turning waste dual pane glass into thermal solar panels used to heat water. Greg writes for intellectual web sites and Mac related issues. See Greg’s art web site at www.gregmills.info ; His email is gregmills@mac.com )

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