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Analyst: Mac shipments outpace market 3-to-1


In sales to business, the Mac’s year-to-year growth last quarter was nearly eight times faster than the industry average, according to Needham analyst Charlie Wolf. In a note to clients — as reported by “Fortune” ( — the analyst said the Mac’s share of the business market last quarter was 4.36% and that:

° At 28.5%, Mac shipment growth in the September quarter easily outpaced the PC’s market growth rate of 9.7%.

° The twin drivers of the Mac’s outperformance were the home and business markets. Mac shipments grew 25.3% in the home market compared with a market growth rate of 10.4%. More significantly, the Mac became the dollar share leader in the U.S. home market with a 29.4% dollar share.

° Continuing the pattern first observed in June, Mac shipments in the business market increased 66.3% compared with just 8.5% shipment growth in the business market overall. Only time will tell whether these data points represent the canary in the coalmine.

° Notwithstanding its premium prices compared with Windows PCs, the Mac should continue to growth faster than the overall PC market, propelled by the multiple halo effects now emanating from the iPod, iPhone and iPad.

“It should be noted, that the increase in the Mac’s dollar share of the U.S. home market resulted chiefly from IDC’s estimate of a sharp increase in the average price of a Mac sold in this market,” says Wolf. “This increase was different from the average selling price of a Mac Apple reported for the September quarter, which was about flat with June. However, in an email response, IDC stood by its average selling price estimate. If Apple’s average selling price were substituted for IDC’s, the Mac’s dollar share of the U.S. home market would fall to 20.0%, slightly less than HP’s share.”

Go to the “Fortune” story to see Wolf’s spreadsheets showing the Mac’s sales growth by market segment and region.

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